Portfolio Intelligence
ProEnter a Polygon wallet address to retrieve a personalised market analysis.
Cascade Scenarios
ProSelect any open Polymarket market and our AI will map downstream consequences for both outcomes.
Example Scenario
FreeSee how a single market outcome cascades through global events — economics, geopolitics, sectors.
US tariff escalation on Chinese imports would trigger a major restructuring of global supply chains, hitting Asian equity markets and accelerating de-globalisation trends that have been building since 2018. At 62%, markets are pricing in significant escalation risk — and the downstream consequences stretch from Fed rate policy to EM currency stability.
If YES — What follows
Asian equity markets sell off sharply
Chinese and South-East Asian stock indices would drop 5–10% on risk-off flows as export revenue forecasts are revised down.
US consumer prices rise 1–2%
Import costs pass through to retail prices within 3–6 months, adding pressure on the Fed to hold rates higher for longer.
Mexico and Vietnam gain manufacturing share
Companies accelerating China+1 strategies redirect orders to alternative hubs, boosting EM manufacturing PMIs in beneficiary nations.
USD strengthens against CNY
China allows gradual currency depreciation to offset tariff impact, pushing DXY higher and pressuring dollar-denominated EM debt.
If NO — What follows
US-China trade talks gain momentum
Tariff rollback signals ease supply chain anxiety, lifting global equities and reducing inflation risk in import-heavy sectors.
Federal Reserve gains rate-cut room
Lower import price pressure reduces CPI sticky components, giving the Fed cleaner justification to begin an easing cycle.
Chinese tech stocks rally on relief
Avoided export restrictions lift outlook for Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, with the Hang Seng Tech index up 8–12%.
US manufacturers face continued competition
Without tariff protection, domestic steel, auto parts, and semiconductor assembly remain exposed to Chinese price competition.