Geopolitics & Conflict
Geopolitics
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Is Hardening Into Permanence
The ceasefire was supposed to reopen the strait. Instead, Iran is building a toll booth.
5% Hormuz open by end of MayFuture Times · 17 May 2026 · 3 min read
Geopolitics
Trump and Xi Are Meeting. Markets Already Know How It Ends.
The Beijing summit is confirmed, but a 53-point gap between visit probability and deal odds tells the real story.
95% Trump visits China May 13Future Times · 12 May 2026 · 3 min read
Geopolitics
Hantavirus Reaches US Soil. Markets Shrug at Pandemic Risk.
A US cruise ship passenger has tested positive for hantavirus, but prediction markets see containment, not contagion.
9% Hantavirus pandemic in 2026Future Times · 12 May 2026 · 4 min read
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Iran's Regime Is More Stable Than Ever. So Is the Blockade.
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Trump Declares Ceasefire Intact After Striking Iran
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Prediction Markets Price an Iran Deal by Summer, Not by the Summit
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Iran’s New Supreme Leader Settles the Succession Question
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Traders Give Hormuz Resolution Eleven Days
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The UAE Broker Thesis Collapsed. Markets Haven't Noticed.
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Trump Goes to Beijing. Markets Don't Expect a Deal.
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Trump Rejected Iran's Hormuz Offer. The UAE May Step In.
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Iraq Bombed Kharg Island 71 Times. Iran Never Lost It.
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UAE Quits OPEC, Splitting the Cartel at Its Weakest Moment
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Beijing's 2027 Military Deadline Changes the Taiwan Calculus
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Markets Price Iran Settlement, Not Stalemate
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Israel Braces as Iran Talks Near Collapse
1% likelyFuture Times · 26 Apr 2026 · 4 min read
Geopolitics
Lebanon's Ceasefire Hits Its Breaking Point Today
20% likelyFuture Times · 26 Apr 2026 · 3 min read
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Trump's Iran Ceasefire Freezes Into Stalemate
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Trump Extended the Lebanon Ceasefire. The Market Doesn't Buy It.
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