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Every geopolitics story on ukraine peace talks, newest first.
7 stories this week
Zelensky says US negotiators asked whether Kyiv would leave Donbas if it joined NATO. Traders see little chance of either happening this year, and a ceasefire only looks more likely than not by mid-2027.
Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by 31 March 2027
7%Russia and Ukraine agree a ceasefire by 31 Decemberdown 4 points
7%Russia-Ukraine ceasefire takes hold by 31 Decemberdown 4 points
22%Russia and Ukraine agree an energy ceasefire this yeardown 23 points
Nearly four hours of US-brokered talks produced talk of a prisoner swap and private flexibility on territory. Traders still put a ceasefire this year at 7.5% and see an agreement as more likely than not only by late spring 2027.
Traders put a Trump-Putin meeting at almost 90% and expect China to host it. They give Zelensky a seat at it, or Ukraine a signed concession, almost no chance.
Paris says Europe will be in the room on Tuesday while Russian strikes cut power to hundreds of thousands. Traders see a 10% chance of a ceasefire by 31 December, rising only in the spring.
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