Fed rate cut by June 202662%+0%
Trump tariffs extended 202671%+0%
Ukraine ceasefire 202634%+0%
OpenAI valuation above $300B58%+0%
Major US company bankruptcy 202629%+0%
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Future Times
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Friday, 12 June 2026

Warsh Inherits a Fed That Won't Follow Him
Markets

Warsh Inherits a Fed That Won't Follow Him

The new Federal Reserve chair faces the most divided Board in three decades, and prediction markets have priced the result: total paralysis.

1% Fed cuts at June FOMCFuture Times · 17 May 2026 · 3 min read
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Is Hardening Into Permanence
Geopolitics

Iran's Hormuz Blockade Is Hardening Into Permanence

The ceasefire was supposed to reopen the strait. Instead, Iran is building a toll booth.

5% Hormuz open by end of MayFuture Times · 17 May 2026 · 3 min read
Anthropic's AI Crown Is Safe Until June
Tech

Anthropic's AI Crown Is Safe Until June

Google I/O came and went without denting the market's conviction that Anthropic holds the best AI model.

99% Anthropic leads end of MayFuture Times · 17 May 2026 · 2 min read
Deep DivesPro

Workslop Is Dragging Enterprise AI Into a Productivity Trap

AI-generated "workslop" — output that looks competent but fails on inspection — is now documented as a structural drag on enterprise productivity. The problem is not that models are bad; it is that mandated adoption outran the human infrastructure needed to review their outputs.

Pro

AI & the Future of Work

AI is disrupting white-collar cognitive work before blue-collar trades, inverting the pattern of every prior automation wave. A three-layer framework explains why economists disagree and who faces displacement first.

Pro

Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets now process more weekly volume than most commodity exchanges. The question is whether Congress or the Supreme Court decides what they actually are.

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Latest

Streeting Launches Formal Challenge to Starmer
Policy

Streeting Launches Formal Challenge to Starmer

Labour's leadership crisis has a named challenger, a resignation letter, and a bond market flashback.

34% Starmer out by May 31Future Times · 17 May 2026 · 3 min read
Trump and Xi Are Meeting. Markets Already Know How It Ends.
Geopolitics

Trump and Xi Are Meeting. Markets Already Know How It Ends.

The Beijing summit is confirmed, but a 53-point gap between visit probability and deal odds tells the real story.

95% Trump visits China May 13Future Times · 12 May 2026 · 3 min read
Labour's Losses Leave Starmer Fighting for Survival
Policy

Labour's Losses Leave Starmer Fighting for Survival

At least one ex-minister threatens a challenge as prediction markets price Starmer's exit probability at 57% by month's end.

57% Starmer out by May 31Future Times · 12 May 2026 · 4 min read
Strategy's Bitcoin Promise Faces a Cash-Flow Deadline
Markets

Strategy's Bitcoin Promise Faces a Cash-Flow Deadline

Strategy bought its smallest Bitcoin tranche of 2026 days after its founder floated the possibility of selling. The market noticed.

67% Strategy sells Bitcoin by June 30Future Times · 12 May 2026 · 4 min read

Deep Dives

Pro
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Workslop Is Dragging Enterprise AI Into a Productivity Trap
Analysis

Workslop Is Dragging Enterprise AI Into a Productivity Trap

AI-generated "workslop" — output that looks competent but fails on inspection — is now documented as a structural drag on enterprise productivity. The problem is not that models are bad; it is that mandated adoption outran the human infrastructure needed to review their outputs.

47% Claude 5 released by June 2026Future Times · 15 Apr 2026 · 8 min readPro
Full analysis for Pro subscribersGo Pro
AI & the Future of Work
Analysis

AI & the Future of Work

AI is disrupting white-collar cognitive work before blue-collar trades, inverting the pattern of every prior automation wave. A three-layer framework explains why economists disagree and who faces displacement first.

37% JD Vance wins 2028 Republican nomination (proxy: pro-AI deployment policy)Future Times · 3 Apr 2026 · 7 min readPro
Full analysis for Pro subscribersGo Pro
Future of Prediction Markets
Analysis

Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets now process more weekly volume than most commodity exchanges. The question is whether Congress or the Supreme Court decides what they actually are.

54% Clarity Act signed into law in 2026Future Times · 30 Mar 2026 · 8 min readPro
Full analysis for Pro subscribersGo Pro

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