Fed rate cut by June 202662%+0%
Trump tariffs extended 202671%+0%
Ukraine ceasefire 202634%+0%
OpenAI valuation above $300B58%+0%
Major US company bankruptcy 202629%+0%
All Market Signals →

Policy & Power

Vance Flies to Budapest. The Market Shrugs.
Policy

Vance Flies to Budapest. The Market Shrugs.

The US Vice President campaigned for Viktor Orbán five days before Hungary's election, in a move without modern precedent that prediction markets dismissed.

65% Magyar wins PMFuture Times · 7 Apr 2026 · 2 min read
Policy

Winning the Primary Is Not Winning the Election

Both parties' 2028 frontrunners are priced to win their nominations but struggle in a general election, revealing a widening electability gap.

18% JD Vance wins 2028 presidential electionFuture Times · 5 Apr 2026 · 3 min read
Policy

Democrats Lead the Polls. Nobody Leads the Democrats.

Gavin Newsom tops the 2028 Democratic nomination market at 24%, but three quarters of the probability is betting on someone else entirely.

24% Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Democratic nominationFuture Times · 4 Apr 2026 · 3 min read

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Orbán’s 34% Prices a System, Not a Poll

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Democrats Have No Frontrunner for 2028

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Hungary's Opposition Is Winning Before the Vote

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The Market Has Already Picked the 2028 Republican Nominee

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Iran Denies Trump's Claim of 'Productive' War Talks

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Trump Claims Iran Peace Breakthrough. Markets Say Otherwise.

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Washington and Beijing Float a Trade Body. The Details Are Thin.

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