Policy & Power

Policy
Vance Flies to Budapest. The Market Shrugs.
The US Vice President campaigned for Viktor Orbán five days before Hungary's election, in a move without modern precedent that prediction markets dismissed.
65% Magyar wins PMFuture Times · 7 Apr 2026 · 2 min read
Policy
Winning the Primary Is Not Winning the Election
Both parties' 2028 frontrunners are priced to win their nominations but struggle in a general election, revealing a widening electability gap.
18% JD Vance wins 2028 presidential electionFuture Times · 5 Apr 2026 · 3 min read
Policy
Democrats Lead the Polls. Nobody Leads the Democrats.
Gavin Newsom tops the 2028 Democratic nomination market at 24%, but three quarters of the probability is betting on someone else entirely.
24% Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Democratic nominationFuture Times · 4 Apr 2026 · 3 min read
More from Policy & Power
Policy
Hungary's Opposition Is Winning Before the Vote
74% likelyFuture Times · 1 Apr 2026 · 4 min read
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The Market Has Already Picked the 2028 Republican Nominee
36% likelyFuture Times · 31 Mar 2026 · 4 min read
Policy
Iran Denies Trump's Claim of 'Productive' War Talks
54% likelyFuture Times · 23 Mar 2026 · 2 min read
Policy
Trump Claims Iran Peace Breakthrough. Markets Say Otherwise.
16% likelyFuture Times · 23 Mar 2026 · 2 min read
Policy
Washington and Beijing Float a Trade Body. The Details Are Thin.
79% likelyFuture Times · 22 Mar 2026 · 2 min readPro