AI is disrupting white-collar cognitive work before blue-collar trades, inverting the pattern of every prior automation wave. A three-layer framework explains why economists disagree and who faces displacement first.

Prediction markets now process more weekly volume than most commodity exchanges. The question is whether Congress or the Supreme Court decides what they actually are.

From a Lebanon ground offensive to a paralysed Federal Reserve, prediction markets are pricing a connected chain of events. The first link is already at 74%.