Howard Lutnick will face senators over Nvidia's China chips. Republicans are now asking the hardest questions
Future Times5 min read
In 30 seconds
The commerce secretary has agreed to testify on 10 December as critics in both parties ask why his department never blacklisted Megaspeed. Traders now rate his exit before New Year as likelier than Nvidia naming a permanent chief by then.
- The core charge is inaction: Commerce has added no company to its export blacklist since October 2025, and Megaspeed is still off it
- Lutnick is now the cabinet member traders see as likeliest to leave before 2027, ahead of Noem and Hegseth
- Elizabeth Warren takes the Senate Banking gavel in January, so the scrutiny outlasts the 10 December hearing
What it means
- StocksNvidia has lost its founder and now faces a regulator under pressure to prove it is tough.
- BusinessCloud companies and server makers that buy Nvidia hardware in Singapore and Malaysia face closer checks on where chips…
- PoliticsA Republican-led committee is now holding the hearing, and a Democrat will chair it from January.
What to watch
- 3 DecThe Senate's requested session with Huang on 3 December
- 10 DecLutnick's own testimony on 10 December
The odds
Polymarket · live, 08:29 GMTHoward Lutnick out as commerce secretary by 31 December
up 23 points over 7dfrom 21% a week ago42% when this was published
What would move these odds
- A rough hearing on 10 December, or a refusal to answer on Megaspeed, would push the odds up
- Commerce adding Megaspeed to the Entity List before the hearing could take some heat out of the charge of inaction
- A fresh statement of support from Trump himself would weigh on the odds
Now · 44%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027: Howard Lutnick43%up 26 points
- New NVIDIA CEO named by December 31, 202624%down 17 points
- Next CEO of NVIDIA: Ian Buck23%down 9 points
"Come here before Thanksgiving. Give us the facts." That was Thom Tillis, a Republican senator, on Howard Lutnick. A day after Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's chief executive, the pressure has moved to the official whose department decides which of Nvidia's chips may go to China.
On Thursday, Lutnick's spokeswoman, Kristen Eichamer, said he had "proactively agreed to appear voluntarily" before the Senate Banking Committee. Its chairman, Tim Scott, has asked him to testify at a public hearing on 10 December about "recent public reports about NVIDIA and the Department of Commerce's role that raises national security concerns". Scott asked Huang to appear on 3 December. The White House says President Donald Trump "maintains complete confidence in the secretary".
Traders are less sure. They put the chance that Lutnick is out as commerce secretary by 31 December at 42% (as of 13 November), up 10.5 points in a day and 16.5 in a week. That is now higher than the chance that Nvidia names a permanent chief executive by the same date.
The charge is what Commerce did not do
None of his critics has accused Lutnick of breaking the law. The criticism is about enforcement. Megaspeed, a Singapore-based cloud company and one of Nvidia's biggest buyers of AI chips, is suspected of shipping advanced Nvidia processors to Chinese entities in breach of a US ban. Alice Huang, who ran the company and is no relation of Jensen Huang, is believed by US intelligence agencies to have worked for China's Ministry of State Security, although the evidence made public so far does not settle it. Jensen Huang's reported relationship with her is at the heart of the scandal. Megaspeed denies diverting any chips, and China denies the espionage claims.
Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security opened an inquiry into Nvidia's sales to Megaspeed in 2024, before Lutnick took office; the New York Times has reported that the case was later moved to the Justice Department. Megaspeed is still not on the Entity List, the export blacklist that cuts companies off from US technology. Commerce has not added a single company to it since October 2025. Axios has reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronted Lutnick earlier this month over Megaspeed's absence from the list.
"The real scandal here is the lack of enforcement of export controls," said Chris McGuire of the Council on Foreign Relations. He went further: "Either Lutnick doesn't know how to do his job or he is protecting Huang."
Republicans have joined the queue
Democratic pressure was expected. Elizabeth Warren, who takes over as chair of the Banking Committee in January, says Lutnick and his under secretary for export controls, Jeffrey Kessler, "must explain why they have not closed export control loopholes". The new part is Republicans. Jim Banks said Lutnick "appears to have used loopholes to allow some of these chip sales to occur" and wants him to testify "ASAP". Kevin Cramer said he "absolutely should".
Not every Republican has turned. Brian Mast, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, wants Congress to investigate Commerce's role but says he has confidence in Lutnick. His committee has given Huang until Friday evening to agree to a closed-door interview on 1 December, or face a subpoena.
Trump has stood by both men. The New York Times reported that he called Huang on Tuesday, two days before the resignation, and encouraged him to resist efforts to remove him. Lutnick, a friend for more than three decades, is one of his closest confidants.
Traders are pricing a political cost, not a corporate one
The broader question tells the same story. Traders give Lutnick a 40.5% chance of leaving the administration before 2027, up 9 points in a day and 21 in a week. A week ago traders thought both Pete Hegseth and Kristi Noem likelier to go. Now Lutnick stands well clear: Noem is at 19% and Hegseth at 17%.
At Nvidia, by contrast, traders have stopped expecting a quick fix. The board named its finance chief, Colette Kress, as interim chief executive on Thursday and opened a search for a permanent successor among internal and external candidates. The chance that a permanent chief is named by 31 December has fallen 25 points in a day to 18.5%. Among named candidates, two insiders lead: Nvidia's Ian Buck at 29% and Kress at 14%, down from 44% a week ago.
Read together, the two sets of numbers point one way. Nvidia has a caretaker and time. Lutnick has a hearing date, a committee about to pass to one of his sharpest critics, and Republicans asking questions once left to Democrats. Traders see the political bill landing in Washington, not in Santa Clara.
Why the secretary may survive
The case for Lutnick staying is strong, and traders still give it 58%. The White House has backed him in plain terms, and his friendship with Trump is decades old. Volunteering to testify, rather than waiting for a subpoena, is the move of an official who intends to stay. Nothing in the reporting so far ties Lutnick personally to Megaspeed, and Mast's support shows he still has Republican defenders. If he adds Megaspeed to the Entity List before 10 December and gets through the hearing, the year-end odds could fall back as quickly as they rose.
What it means for markets, business and politics
Stocks Nvidia has lost its founder and now faces a regulator under pressure to prove it is tough. A Commerce Department that starts using the Entity List again would be a risk to Nvidia's sales through South-East Asian resellers, whatever happens to Lutnick.
NVDABusiness Cloud companies and server makers that buy Nvidia hardware in Singapore and Malaysia face closer checks on where chips end up. Warren and Chris Coons have already demanded that documents on Nvidia's China exports be preserved.
Politics A Republican-led committee is now holding the hearing, and a Democrat will chair it from January. The pressure on Lutnick does not end in December if he stays.
What to watch
Friday evening's House deadline for Huang; any Commerce move on Megaspeed; the Senate's requested session with Huang on 3 December; and Lutnick's own testimony on 10 December. Above all, Trump. He backed Huang and Lutnick alike in recent days, and only one of them is still in his job.