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Every geopolitics story on iran blockade, newest first.
9 stories this week
Tehran says the ships had their transponders off. Nobody has verified the strikes, but the mine threat leaves normal shipping this year a remote prospect and makes a quick US-Iran pause harder to believe.
Hormuz shipping back to normal by 31 December
69%Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through 31 Decemberup 11 points
57%Two-week pause in US strikes on Iran begins by 22 Novup 5 points
19%US announces end of Iran blockade by 31 Decemberdown 15 points
Scott Bessent's move, a terror indictment over a plot against a British airbase and Tehran's refusal to give up "a single particle" of enriched uranium have pushed hopes of an early end to the blockade sharply lower. Traders are pricing a stalemate, not a wider war.
Tehran called the talk of talks "fake news", and traders cut the chance of Washington lifting its naval blockade this year to about a third. The shooting is winding down; the settlement is not arriving.
Trump calls the war "effectively over" and says new strikes are "highly unlikely". The distance between a pause in fighting and a working Gulf is where the risk sits.
The president and his secretary of state spent Sunday sounding like men looking for an exit. Traders think the strikes may pause within weeks, but still expect the naval siege of Iran's ports to outlast the year.
Saudi Arabia says no one was hurt, but the strike on the kingdom's business heart lands as US forces tighten the Iran blockade. Markets see a Saudi-Houthi truce as unlikely before the year ends.
News, priced in. Journalism built on what prediction markets expect to happen next.
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