Trump's envoys are back in the Kremlin with a peace pitch. Russia won't even agree to stop bombing power plants
Future Times5 min read
In 30 seconds
The first direct Russia-Ukraine talks in nine months yielded a prisoner swap and a trip to see Putin. The evidence points to a ceasefire next year at the earliest, with the decisive meeting more likely in Shenzhen than in Moscow.
- Traders see about a 10% chance of a ceasefire taking hold this year, and 25% by the end of March 2027
- A signed deal by March is priced higher, at 36%, than a truce actually holding by then
- Russia refused to discuss an energy truce, so Ukraine's grid faces winter strikes
What it means
- MarketsWith a working ceasefire at about one in ten this year, peace-sensitive assets, from Ukrainian sovereign debt to…
- Stocks and sectorsEuropean defence contractors face no near-term peace discount; the more likely path is another winter of procurement…
- BusinessWith an energy truce off the table, Ukraine's grid enters winter exposed, keeping demand for generators and power…
- GeopoliticsThe diplomacy is shifting from Kyiv's front line to a wider Russia-Europe bargain, which gives Europe leverage only if…
What to watch
The envoys' briefing in Dublin on Thursday evening, the prisoner exchange and the APEC summit in Shenzhen.
The odds
Polymarket · live, 05:56 GMTRussia-Ukraine ceasefire takes hold by 31 December
down 3 points over 7dfrom 10% a week ago10% when this was published
Signals to watch
- A March 2027 truce figure climbing towards 35% would signal traders think Moscow is moving.
Now · 7%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by March 31, 202723%up 1 point
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by December 31, 202749%up 7 points
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 202736%unchanged
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner landed at Moscow's Vnukovo airport on Thursday morning and were greeted by Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin's special envoy, before sitting down with the Russian president in the Kremlin in the afternoon. They arrived carrying, in Volodymyr Zelenskyy's words, "concrete proposals". A day earlier, in Abu Dhabi, Russia's negotiators had told Ukraine they had no mandate even to discuss a halt to strikes on power stations.
That gap between American urgency and Russian reluctance defines this round. Two days of talks, the first direct Russia-Ukraine meeting in nine months, ended on Wednesday with a prisoner exchange and little else. Zelenskyy, in Dublin for a gathering of some 50 European leaders, says he sees "a window of opportunity" before 2027. A deal, he said, "depends on the willingness of the American side to pressure Russia or not". He added: "Let me be the skeptic on this team. But there is still hope."
Prediction markets share both halves of that view. Traders have nudged their hopes for a ceasefire into early 2027, and still see almost no chance the guns fall silent this year.
What Abu Dhabi did and did not deliver
Alexander Zorin of Russia's General Staff said the swap would exceed 1,000 people on each side and could take place within two to three weeks. Rustem Umerov, Ukraine's chief negotiator, acknowledged "significant differences" remain.
On the substance, the positions have barely moved. Moscow still demands that Ukraine withdraw from the parts of Donbas it holds; Kyiv refuses. Vladimir Medinsky, Russia's lead negotiator, said that "every inch of our land will be returned to Russia, one way or another".
The sharpest refusal came on energy. Ukraine pressed for de-escalation in the Black Sea and an end to attacks on its grid. Zelenskyy said on Thursday that "the Russians said they had no mandate to discuss measures that could reduce the horrors of this war", and that his delegation was told the Russian leader was furious and wanted to keep striking.
Kushner's stated aim in Moscow is narrower than a ceasefire: Putin's consent to European representatives joining talks that Washington wants to widen into a deal on the continent's security. "President Putin will give the blessing for that to occur," he said in Abu Dhabi.
Traders push peace into 2027
The clearest reading comes from markets on whether a general ceasefire actually takes hold, meaning a mutually agreed halt across the front that lasts at least ten days. As of 12 November, traders put that at 10% by 31 December, on $1.9mn of trading. By 31 March 2027 the figure is 25%, up 4 points in a day and 7 in a week. By the end of 2027 it is 45%.
Read together, those numbers place the market's central expectation for a working truce beyond the end of next year. The talks have brought spring 2027 into play, but not this winter.
A second set of markets asks a different question: whether Russia and Ukraine sign a dated ceasefire agreement, even if it starts later. Traders give that 36% by 31 March 2027 and 53% by 30 June. The gap of about 11 points between a deal being signed by March and a truce actually holding by then is the market's measure of implementation risk: a signature in Moscow and Kyiv is not the same as silence on a 1,200km front.
The two moved in opposite directions on Thursday: an agreement by March slipped 2 points in a day while a working truce by March rose 4. Optimism about the Moscow visit is real but shallow.
Energy truce off the table, summit headed for China
Russia's refusal in Abu Dhabi shows up plainly in prices. Traders put an agreement to stop strikes on at least one category of energy infrastructure by 30 November at 14.5%, down from about 30% a week ago. By 31 December the figure is 30%, down from roughly 45%.
The decisive meeting may not happen in Moscow at all. Kushner said Russia wants more progress before a leaders' summit. China's foreign ministry said on 7 November it was in contact with the relevant parties on a meeting of Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Putin, with Shenzhen hosting the APEC summit this month. Traders put the chance that Trump and Putin's next meeting this year takes place in China at 94.5%.
On territory, the market agrees with Kyiv. Traders give only 5.7% to Ukraine agreeing to cede land to Russia by the end of 2026.
Why the sceptics could be wrong
The case for a faster deal is not trivial. Washington has put a broader European security bargain on the table, and Medinsky said the Abu Dhabi talks addressed a possible new Russia-Europe security framework. Zelenskyy argues the clock favours a deal: "The political landscape in Europe could change in 2027 … we also see changes already taking place in the United States." A Kremlin that wins a hearing for its European agenda could trade a ceasefire for it, and a joint announcement from Shenzhen would wrong-foot the market.
Kyiv is also negotiating under strain. Ukraine says SpaceX's Starshield service has again capped its drones at 100mph, which Zelenskyy said "directly affects our ability to intercept Russian drones".
What it means for markets, business and geopolitics
Markets With a working ceasefire at about one in ten this year, peace-sensitive assets, from Ukrainian sovereign debt to European gas, have little reason to price a settlement before spring.
Stocks and sectors European defence contractors face no near-term peace discount; the more likely path is another winter of procurement and of sanctions pressure on Russian energy exporters.
Business With an energy truce off the table, Ukraine's grid enters winter exposed, keeping demand for generators and power equipment high and insurance for Ukrainian assets costly.
Geopolitics The diplomacy is shifting from Kyiv's front line to a wider Russia-Europe bargain, which gives Europe leverage only if it names a credible negotiator, something Zelenskyy wants done before the end of November.
What to watch
The envoys' briefing in Dublin on Thursday evening, the prisoner exchange and the APEC summit in Shenzhen. A March 2027 truce figure climbing towards 35% would signal traders think Moscow is moving. Until then, the strikes on the grid have the floor.