The House just shelved Pete Hegseth's impeachment. Democrats say it is "just the beginning" of the fight
Future Times2 min read
In 30 seconds
A 211-204 vote sent the articles to committee, all but ruling out impeachment this year. Traders now expect the fight to resume when Democrats take the House in January, while expectations that he leaves the Pentagon have collapsed.
- The House referred the Hegseth articles to committee 211-204, with Thomas Massie the only Republican against
- Impeachment this year now looks almost dead; a renewed push after Democrats take the House in January remains likely
- Expectations that Hegseth leaves the Pentagon by year end fell sharply after the vote
The odds
Polymarket · live, 08:04 GMTHegseth leaves the Pentagon by 31 December
down 27 points over 7dfrom 43% a week ago12% when this was published
Now · 16%
Think the market's wrong? Add your forecast and see who's closer.
- Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 20262%down 60 points
- Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 202750%down 26 points
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 305%down 24 points
The House of Representatives on Tuesday evening voted 211-204 to refer Thomas Massie's resolution impeaching Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Judiciary Committee, shelving it for the rest of this Congress. Massie, a Kentucky Republican, was the only member of his party to vote against the motion, according to the House Clerk's roll call.
Every Democrat who voted opposed the referral; 11 Democrats and seven Republicans did not vote. The resolution charged Hegseth over military operations in Iran, Yemen, Venezuela and the Caribbean. Hegseth called it "a farce" and said: "None of these are high crimes or misdemeanors." President Donald Trump wrote that the effort had "miserably FAILED!" Massie, who leaves Congress in January, said he would not bring another impeachment resolution. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader on course to become Speaker, said: "This is not the end of it. It's just the beginning."
Traders took Jeffries at his word, but only for next year. As of 11 November, Polymarket traders put the chance that Hegseth is impeached by 31 December at 3.5%, down almost 78 points in a day. The chance of impeachment by 31 March 2027 fell 23 points to 61%, on only $44,000 of trading, still above where it stood a week ago.
The bigger shift is in his job security. Traders now give 11.5% to Hegseth leaving the Pentagon by 31 December, down 22 points in a day and 30 points in a week, and 3.9% to an exit by 30 November. The vote removed the main pressure for an early departure: an impeachment in the current House that would have forced a Senate trial before the year is out.
Why it matters
- Politics: The gap between this year and next spring is the story. Traders see the vote as a delay rather than a reprieve: the new Democratic majority is expected to move against Hegseth within its first three months.
- Policy: With Hegseth secure for now, Democrats' nearer leverage over the Iran conflict lies in the 11 December government funding deadline and the annual defence bill, not impeachment.
- Defence: A Pentagon chief who looks safe until January but faces likely impeachment soon after leaves contractors and allies planning around a leader whose term may not last far into 2027.