War With Iran — Just Not the Kind You're Expecting

Prediction markets show military entry three times more likely than a ceasefire by April, with regime collapse arriving slowly, not suddenly

Prediction markets assign a 26% probability to US forces entering Iran before April, according to Polymarket as of 19 March 2026. The probability of a ceasefire by the same date sits at 8%. That gap, escalation three times more likely than de-escalation, is not background noise. It is the core signal.

This is not a story about a decisive strike. It is a story about a confrontation that markets expect to grind forward, not resolve.

What the Markets Are Saying