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Every markets story on fed rate path, newest first.
7 stories this week
A weekend sell-off took bitcoin to its lowest since July and ether down even faster. With a December Fed rise all but certain and money still leaving the funds, traders see a fall back below $60,000, last seen in early July, as the likelier path.
Bitcoin dips to $60,000 by the end of 2026
100%Bitcoin dips to $65,000 in NovemberResolved yes
58%Fed raises rates again in Januaryup 39 points
100%Bitcoin falls to $70,000 before the end of 2026Resolved yes
A 0.4% rise in consumer prices and a 10-year yield back at 5% have made a December rate rise close to certain. The bigger shift is further out, with a second rise by January now an even call.
A Fed governor has tied a bigger December rate rise to one number in this afternoon's CPI. Traders have barely priced it, though one threshold sits uncomfortably close to what core inflation has already been doing.
The October inflation report due on 10 November is the first test of whether cheaper crude can talk the Fed out of a December rise. Markets say it probably cannot, and the Fed's own record explains why.
News, priced in. Journalism built on what prediction markets expect to happen next.
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